If you already have some experience in betting on football

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If you already have some experience in betting on football

Postby doga » 01 Oct 2019, 09:37

If you already have some experience in betting on football, then surely you have more than once had a situation where the rate was held until the last minutes, but the goal of one of the teams in the end spoiled everything. Most importantly, the feeling that more goals are scored in the last minutes is not false at all. Indeed, if you break the games into five-minute intervals, the most goals are in the last 5 minutes. This is a real pattern of almost any football tournament.

Example https://www.pin-up.bet/
Statistics of goals by minutes
If we take the previous seasons, the overall picture will change slightly. In the last 5 minutes, the most goals are scored in almost any football tournament (there are exceptions, but they are very rare).

If there is such a pattern, you need to try to make money on it. Naturally, if you bet on goals in the last minutes in all consecutive matches, you will end up at a loss. Bookmakers understand that the probability of a goal at the end of the game is higher, so pre-match odds on such markets are underestimated.

Teams will not aim to score a goal at the end of the game if the score is 3-0 on 75 minutes. Therefore, according to this strategy, it is best to bet in Live mode. You can select matches for such bets according to the following criteria:

1. By the end of the match the difference in the score is less than 2 goals
If the team needs only one goal to save the situation, its players will try much harder than in a situation where you need to score 2 or 3 goals. Players are able to assess their strength, so in a desperate situation, the game is likely to be dried up.

2. The underdog wins
If the outsider wins by one goal, there is a very good chance that the favorite will snatch a draw or even a victory at the end of the match. Also, there is often a situation when the favorite is too fond of attacks and as a result concedes a goal.

3. Passes Derby or game irreconcilable rivals
Goal in the last minutes of the match
In games like Schalke 04-Borussia Dortmund, the winning team will aim to score a goal and after a three-goal difference, and the losing team will definitely try to score a prestige goal.

4. Difficult position in the standings
Often in the group rounds of the Champions League or the Europa League in the last round there is a situation that the team to exit the group need to win with a difference of 3 or more goals. If in the process of the game she will win 2:0, then in late match can be expect abundance of dangerous moments and likely goal.

5. Many shots on target
It is clear that a bet on a goal in the last minutes would be unreasonable if the whole game the team struck only 1 shot on target. The more shots on target put the team, the higher the probability of a goal.

6. The removal of the goalkeeper
Especially this rate will be relevant if at the time of removal of all replacements coach have already been used.

7. Replacing a strong attacking player
Even if teams have lost motivation to score goals by the end of the game, it can be the players who came on as substitutes. This is a great opportunity for the player to prove to the coach that he deserved a place in the first team.

8. Individual team statistics
In each tournament, there are several strong-willed and weak-willed teams that often score and concede in the last minutes. It is in the matches of such teams and need to make such bets.

It is very difficult to intuitively feel the best time to bet on a goal at the end of the game. It is advisable to make such a bet no more than a few minutes before the goal, when the coefficients on this market take maximum values.

Remember that very often goals are scored after corners and penalties, so if you follow the video broadcast of the game without a big picture delay, you can bet before the bookmakers lower the odds on this event.
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